The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything – and take advantage of uncertainty

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper?

This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they’re impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them.

‘Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide … I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person’ ~ Will Self, Independent on Sunday

‘He leaps like some superhero of the mind’ ~ Boyd Tonkin, Independent

Praise for The Black Swan

“A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected”

~ Guardian

“Like the conversation of a raconteur … hugely enjoyable – compelling”

~Financial Times

“It has altered modern thinking”

~ The Times

“Confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot.”

~ Sunday Times

“The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”

~ Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow

“Great fun… brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling”

~ Stephen J. Dubner, co-author of Freakonomics

“The most prophetic voice of all”

~ GQ